New TV Measurement Sample Signals Boon In Ad Dollars for Cable Networks

The New York Times reports that Nielsen Media Research will introduce a new sample of college students into the measurement mix to establish ratings for television programs.

It seems amazing that it has taken this long to introduce the college population in the Nielson measurement regime, especially considering pressure from paying customers such as MTV Networks, Fox, ESPN, WB and Turner. Market researchers are already predicting a significant bump in ratings for shows like "Family Guy," "America's Next Top Model" and "Drawn Together." I'm sure there will also be surprises for cable networks with obscure reruns and cult hits such as TV Land, IFC and Food Network.

With these numbers, the cable networks will be able to demand higher premiums from media buyers tasked with reaching the valuable twenty-something demographic. As ad buyer Brad Adgate reminds us, "If you can get them using your product at age 20, they could be using it for the next 60 years."

While a significant advance in measurement, I see a number of challenges ahead for Nielson and their methodology. I have written elsewhere about the possibility of introducing bias, or a "Hawthorne Effect," by using portable people meters to gauge viewing. Using obtrusive measurement techniques and observations can alter the behavior of the subjects. In this case you may end up with college students selecting programming that reflects perceived "social desirability," as is often reported in studies of civic and political life. There is no question that certain age groups and social contexts are more susceptible to various Hawthorne effects. I see the college age group to be a prime candidate for this kind of bias.

The New York Times calls out other challenges such as background viewing while surfing the Web, playing video games, socializing, and - heaven forbid - doing homework.

While the new sample undoubtedly helps provide a more accurate picture of television viewing overall, potential pitfalls associated with the portable people meter call for increased triangulation and validity checking with surveys and other forms of self-reporting.  Who knows what other interesting viewing patterns are afoot in college life.

-- Josh Hawkins